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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2021-10-22 13:50
Modeling and prediction of injury occurrences of sumo wrestlers by using Hawkes process
Shuhei Ota (Kanagawa Univ.), Mitsuhiro Kimura (Hosei Univ.) R2021-30
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) In sumo wrestling, which is a Japanese traditional sport, lots of sumo wrestlers suffer from injuries through actual bouts. Because sumo wrestling loses its fun by increasing the number of injury occurrences of sumo wrestlers, the necessity of creating systems to reduce injury occurrences of sumo wrestlers has been discussed for a long time (e.g., kosho system). However, most of the discussions have not been done based on the quantitative evaluation of the injury. Therefore, we propose a stochastic model of injury occurrences for sumo wrestlers and evaluate the risk of injury occurrences of sumo wrestlers. In particular, we estimate the probability of an injury occurrence for a sumo wrestler in a grand sumo tournament. While previous research modeled the injury occurrence by using the non-homogeneous Poisson process that is well-known in reliability engineering, we model it by the Hawkes process. We reveal that the proposed model is fitter for the actual data than the previous model.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) sumo / sports injury / injury prediction / statistical data / Hawkes process / reliability engineering / /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 121, no. 216, R2021-30, pp. 1-6, Oct. 2021.
Paper # R2021-30 
Date of Issue 2021-10-15 (R) 
ISSN Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
Download PDF R2021-30

Conference Information
Committee R  
Conference Date 2021-10-22 - 2021-10-22 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Online 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) Reliability of Information Communication System, Reliability General 
Paper Information
Registration To R 
Conference Code 2021-10-R 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Modeling and prediction of injury occurrences of sumo wrestlers by using Hawkes process 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) sumo  
Keyword(2) sports injury  
Keyword(3) injury prediction  
Keyword(4) statistical data  
Keyword(5) Hawkes process  
Keyword(6) reliability engineering  
1st Author's Name Shuhei Ota  
1st Author's Affiliation Kanagawa University (Kanagawa Univ.)
2nd Author's Name Mitsuhiro Kimura  
2nd Author's Affiliation Hosei University (Hosei Univ.)
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Speaker Author-1 
Date Time 2021-10-22 13:50:00 
Presentation Time 25 minutes 
Registration for R 
Paper # R2021-30 
Volume (vol) vol.121 
Number (no) no.216 
Page pp.1-6 
Date of Issue 2021-10-15 (R) 

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