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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2021-11-30 13:25
Predicting Vulnerability Discovery Processes in Support Periods for an Operating System
Kento Kubota, Tadashi Dohi, Hiroyuki Okamura (Hiroshima Univ.) R2021-35
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) In this note, we classify the severity level of software vulnerabilities founded in Debian Linux Version 8.0, which is an operating system, and make prediction of the number of software vulnerabilities detected during the support periods.
We introduce seven kinds of Poisson processes, and use the maximum likelihood method and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for the parameter estimation and model selection, respectively.
Especially, we investigate the data availability of not only Version 8.0 data but also the older versions of Debian Linux in terms of the predictive performance.
As a result, it is shown that the vulnerability prediction accuracy with multiple versions, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0 and 4.0, is better than that with single version data for the low-severity level, but the other cases for middle- and high-severity levels do not depend on the past version data to improve the prediction accuracy.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) Software vulnerability / Vulnerability discovery process / Operating System / Support periods, / Poissonprocesses / Prediction / /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 121, no. 276, R2021-35, pp. 7-12, Nov. 2021.
Paper # R2021-35 
Date of Issue 2021-11-23 (R) 
ISSN Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
Download PDF R2021-35

Conference Information
Committee R  
Conference Date 2021-11-30 - 2021-11-30 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Online 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) Reliability of semiconductor and electronic devices, Reliability ge 
Paper Information
Registration To R 
Conference Code 2021-11-R 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Predicting Vulnerability Discovery Processes in Support Periods for an Operating System 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) Software vulnerability  
Keyword(2) Vulnerability discovery process  
Keyword(3) Operating System  
Keyword(4) Support periods,  
Keyword(5) Poissonprocesses  
Keyword(6) Prediction  
1st Author's Name Kento Kubota  
1st Author's Affiliation Hiroshima University (Hiroshima Univ.)
2nd Author's Name Tadashi Dohi  
2nd Author's Affiliation Hiroshima University (Hiroshima Univ.)
3rd Author's Name Hiroyuki Okamura  
3rd Author's Affiliation Hiroshima University (Hiroshima Univ.)
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Speaker Author-1 
Date Time 2021-11-30 13:25:00 
Presentation Time 25 minutes 
Registration for R 
Paper # R2021-35 
Volume (vol) vol.121 
Number (no) no.276 
Page pp.7-12 
Date of Issue 2021-11-23 (R) 

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