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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2013-07-12 10:20
Enhancing Traceability Against Variations of Time Series using Automated Parameter Re-estimation Detection
Hiroki Nakayama, Shingo Ata, Ikuo Oka (Osaka City Univ.) ICM2013-19
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) It is necessary to update the prediction model’s parameter with the progress of the time to reduce the deterioration of the accuracy of prediction, since the time series data of traffic changes every moment. However, the frequency of parameter re-estimation differs greatly due to the characteristic of time series data. In this paper, we propose a method to detect the phase for re-estimation automatically by using the residual of prediction as feedback information. Our method reduces the prediction error by handling the phase of re-estimation and also reduces unnecessary re-estimation. We realized a lightweight and general control structure by using moving average and moving standard deviation. We demonstrate that by applying it to the real monitored data in a major P2P file-sharing system the traceability against variations of time series increased about 20%.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) Trend Prediction / Time Series Analysis / Moving Average / Characteristic Detection / / / /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 113, no. 124, ICM2013-19, pp. 57-62, July 2013.
Paper # ICM2013-19 
Date of Issue 2013-07-04 (ICM) 
ISSN Print edition: ISSN 0913-5685    Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
Copyright
and
reproduction		 All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
Download PDF ICM2013-19

Conference Information
Committee ICM  
Conference Date 2013-07-11 - 2013-07-12 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Future University Hakodate 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English)  
Paper Information
Registration To ICM 
Conference Code 2013-07-ICM 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Enhancing Traceability Against Variations of Time Series using Automated Parameter Re-estimation Detection 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) Trend Prediction  
Keyword(2) Time Series Analysis  
Keyword(3) Moving Average  
Keyword(4) Characteristic Detection  
Keyword(5)  
Keyword(6)  
Keyword(7)  
Keyword(8)  
1st Author's Name Hiroki Nakayama  
1st Author's Affiliation Osaka City University (Osaka City Univ.)
2nd Author's Name Shingo Ata  
2nd Author's Affiliation Osaka City University (Osaka City Univ.)
3rd Author's Name Ikuo Oka  
3rd Author's Affiliation Osaka City University (Osaka City Univ.)
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Speaker Author-1 
Date Time 2013-07-12 10:20:00 
Presentation Time 25 minutes 
Registration for ICM 
Paper # ICM2013-19 
Volume (vol) vol.113 
Number (no) no.124 
Page pp.57-62 
#Pages 6 
Date of Issue 2013-07-04 (ICM) 

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