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| Presentation | 2019-05-24 11:15 Construction of a regression analysis model of the electricity market including weather data -- Economic analysis of price effect, energy conservation effect and social welfare effect -- Hiroyuki Ogura (Mitsubishi Electric Corp.), Shunsuke Managi (Kyushu Univ.), Masahiko Ishino (Bunkyo Univ.)  KBSE2019-2 SWIM2019-2 |
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| Abstract | (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| (in English) | In this paper, we constructed a regression analysis model of the electricity power market including weather data, using panel data of the power saving behavior in the home acquired by Nakanojo power demand response demonstration experiment in Gunma prefecture. At the same time, we used the Japan Wholesale Power Exchange (JEPX) data set (the total execution quantity, the market price). And we estimated the model coefficients and elasticity of the parameters (price, DR, temperature, sunlight hours) of the power demand change. As a result of our analysis, the DR effect of incentive type DR is larger than that of electric power type DR except in FY2017 winter season. In other words, because power is an essential product for the living environment and production activities of consumers, etc., we confirmed that benefit and economic rationality, such as comfort and productivity, was given priority over electricity prices, especially when power was tight, such as severe weather. By using the power market regression model including the weather data proposed in this paper, it is possible to predict the DR effect of electricity rate DR and incentive DR more accurately. And, it can be used for power supply balance adjustment. | |
| Keyword | (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| (in English) | consumer electricity resources / social benefit effect / wholesale power market / demand response / price elasticity / panel data regression analysis / fixed effect / randam effect | |
| Reference Info. | IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 119, no. 57, SWIM2019-2, pp. 9-16, May 2019. | |
| Paper # | SWIM2019-2 | |
| Date of Issue | 2019-05-17 (KBSE, SWIM) | |
| ISSN | Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380 | |
| Copyright and reproduction |
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034) | |
| Download PDF | KBSE2019-2 SWIM2019-2 |
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| Conference Information | |
| Committee | SWIM KBSE |
| Conference Date | 2019-05-24 - 2019-05-25 |
| Place (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Place (in English) | Kikai-Shinko-Kaikan Bldg. |
| Topics (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Topics (in English) | |
| Paper Information | |
| Registration To | SWIM |
| Conference Code | 2019-05-SWIM-KBSE |
| Language | Japanese |
| Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Sub Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Title (in English) | Construction of a regression analysis model of the electricity market including weather data |
| Sub Title (in English) | Economic analysis of price effect, energy conservation effect and social welfare effect |
| Keyword(1) | consumer electricity resources |
| Keyword(2) | social benefit effect |
| Keyword(3) | wholesale power market |
| Keyword(4) | demand response |
| Keyword(5) | price elasticity |
| Keyword(6) | panel data regression analysis |
| Keyword(7) | fixed effect |
| Keyword(8) | randam effect |
| 1st Author's Name | Hiroyuki Ogura |
| 1st Author's Affiliation | Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (Mitsubishi Electric Corp.) |
| 2nd Author's Name | Shunsuke Managi |
| 2nd Author's Affiliation | Kyushu University (Kyushu Univ.) |
| 3rd Author's Name | Masahiko Ishino |
| 3rd Author's Affiliation | Bunkyo University (Bunkyo Univ.) |
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| Speaker | Author-1 |
| Date Time | 2019-05-24 11:15:00 |
| Presentation Time | 45 minutes |
| Registration for | SWIM |
| Paper # | KBSE2019-2, SWIM2019-2 |
| Volume (vol) | vol.119 |
| Number (no) | no.56(KBSE), no.57(SWIM) |
| Page | pp.9-16 |
| #Pages | 8 |
| Date of Issue | 2019-05-17 (KBSE, SWIM) |
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