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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2022-01-11 17:55
Constructon of Real-Time Win Probability Model in B.LEAGUE
Koji Sugie, Eiji Konaka (Meijo Univ.) MSS2021-45 SS2021-32
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) Recently, it is widely investigated that the construction of mathematical models calculating predicted win probability for various situations of sports matches. This research is active for famous sports in different places. For instance, in Japan, it is active in Shogi or baseball. In North America and Europe, it is active for basketball, American football, and more.
This study aims to construct a win probability model for professional basketball. The proposed model satisfies the monotonicity of the predicted win probability concerning the score difference. A win probability model will be constructed using match results of B.LEAGUE. The constructed model will be verified based on prediction accuracy, logarithmic loss, and calibration values.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) win probability model / generalized linear regression / / / / / /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 121, no. 317, MSS2021-45, pp. 78-82, Jan. 2022.
Paper # MSS2021-45 
Date of Issue 2022-01-04 (MSS, SS) 
ISSN Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
Copyright
and
reproduction		 All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
Notes on Review This article is a technical report without peer review, and its polished version will be published elsewhere.
Download PDF MSS2021-45 SS2021-32

Conference Information
Committee SS MSS  
Conference Date 2022-01-11 - 2022-01-12 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Nagasakiken-Kensetsu-Sogo-Kaikan Bldg. 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) Mathematical Systems Science and its Applications, Software Science, etc. 
Paper Information
Registration To MSS 
Conference Code 2022-01-SS-MSS 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Constructon of Real-Time Win Probability Model in B.LEAGUE 
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Keyword(1) win probability model  
Keyword(2) generalized linear regression  
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1st Author's Name Koji Sugie  
1st Author's Affiliation Meijo University (Meijo Univ.)
2nd Author's Name Eiji Konaka  
2nd Author's Affiliation Meijo University (Meijo Univ.)
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Speaker Author-1 
Date Time 2022-01-11 17:55:00 
Presentation Time 25 minutes 
Registration for MSS 
Paper # MSS2021-45, SS2021-32 
Volume (vol) vol.121 
Number (no) no.317(MSS), no.318(SS) 
Page pp.78-82 
#Pages 5 
Date of Issue 2022-01-04 (MSS, SS) 

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