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| 講演名 | 2026-06-20 10:10 Analysis of Cluster-Specific Value-Added Outflows in India’s Steel Industry -- A Time-Series Study using HRP and TiVA Data -- ○Jun Iigaya・Sakura Hirano・Jiaxin Lin・Yukari Shirota（Gakushuin Univ）  DE2026-2 |
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| 抄録 | （和） | This study analyzes the time-series structural changes from 2000 to 2022 in the domestic value added in foreign final demand (FFD_DVA) of India's steel industry (C24), using the OECD–WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. The FFD_DVA indicator measures the share of India's domestically generated steel-related value added that is ultimately absorbed by the final demand of each partner country. Unlike conventional gross trade statistics, this indicator allows us to identify the true "end-users" of Indian steel by tracing value added through global supply chains to its final destination. Using HRP clustering based on correlation distances, we identify four distinct groups of countries: the European Automotive Cluster (Germany, Italy, France, and the UK), the North American and Emerging Market Cluster (the USA, Canada, Mexico, and Türkiye), the East Asian Cluster (Japan and Korea), and China, which forms a separate trajectory of its own. The analysis yields three principal findings. First, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis caused the largest contraction in India's steel value added absorbed by European final demand (Germany: −41.9%), while China uniquely increased its absorption (+29.8%) through domestic stimulus investment. Second, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake did not suppress India's FFD_DVA in the short term; all destinations recorded sharp increases in 2011, followed by a uniform decline in 2012 and a recovery in 2013. Third, the 2015 global steel decline caused the most uniform drop across all destinations, as China's surplus exports pushed global steel prices down, directly reducing India's dollar-denominated value added. In the post-COVID period, the United States has emerged as the dominant absorber of Indian steel value added, accounting for 23.1% of India's total global FFD_DVA in 2022, while China's absorption fell sharply due to the collapse of its real estate market. These findings suggest that HRP clustering of TiVA data is a useful tool for tracking India's evolving position in global steel value chains. |
| （英） | This study analyzes the time-series structural changes from 2000 to 2022 in the domestic value added in foreign final demand (FFD_DVA) of India's steel industry (C24), using the OECD–WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. The FFD_DVA indicator measures the share of India's domestically generated steel-related value added that is ultimately absorbed by the final demand of each partner country. Unlike conventional gross trade statistics, this indicator allows us to identify the true "end-users" of Indian steel by tracing value added through global supply chains to its final destination. Using HRP clustering based on correlation distances, we identify four distinct groups of countries: the European Automotive Cluster (Germany, Italy, France, and the UK), the North American and Emerging Market Cluster (the USA, Canada, Mexico, and Türkiye), the East Asian Cluster (Japan and Korea), and China, which forms a separate trajectory of its own. The analysis yields three principal findings. First, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis caused the largest contraction in India's steel value added absorbed by European final demand (Germany: −41.9%), while China uniquely increased its absorption (+29.8%) through domestic stimulus investment. Second, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake did not suppress India's FFD_DVA in the short term; all destinations recorded sharp increases in 2011, followed by a uniform decline in 2012 and a recovery in 2013. Third, the 2015 global steel decline caused the most uniform drop across all destinations, as China's surplus exports pushed global steel prices down, directly reducing India's dollar-denominated value added. In the post-COVID period, the United States has emerged as the dominant absorber of Indian steel value added, accounting for 23.1% of India's total global FFD_DVA in 2022, while China's absorption fell sharply due to the collapse of its real estate market. These findings suggest that HRP clustering of TiVA data is a useful tool for tracking India's evolving position in global steel value chains. |
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| キーワード | （和） | インド / 鉄鋼業 / TiVA / 付加価値貿易 / 階層型クラスタリング / / / |
| （英） | India / steel industry / TiVA / trade in value added / hierarchical clustering / / / | |
| 文献情報 | 信学技報, vol. 126, no. 81, DE2026-2, pp. 7-12, 2026年6月. | |
| 資料番号 | DE2026-2 | |
| 発行日 | 2026-06-13 (DE) | |
| ISSN | Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380 | |
| 著作権に ついて |
技術研究報告に掲載された論文の著作権は電子情報通信学会に帰属します．(許諾番号：10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034) | |
| PDFダウンロード | DE2026-2 |
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| 研究会情報 | |
| 研究会 | DE |
| 開催期間 | 2026-06-20 - 2026-06-20 |
| 開催地（和） | 専修大学（神田キャンパス） |
| 開催地（英） | Senshu University (Kanda Campus) |
| テーマ（和） | ソーシャルコンピューティング |
| テーマ（英） | Social Computing |
| 講演論文情報の詳細 | |
| 申込み研究会 | DE |
| 会議コード | 2026-06-DE |
| 本文の言語 | 英語 |
| タイトル（和） | |
| サブタイトル（和） | |
| タイトル（英） | Analysis of Cluster-Specific Value-Added Outflows in India’s Steel Industry |
| サブタイトル（英） | A Time-Series Study using HRP and TiVA Data |
| キーワード(1)（和/英） | インド / India |
| キーワード(2)（和/英） | 鉄鋼業 / steel industry |
| キーワード(3)（和/英） | TiVA / TiVA |
| キーワード(4)（和/英） | 付加価値貿易 / trade in value added |
| キーワード(5)（和/英） | 階層型クラスタリング / hierarchical clustering |
| キーワード(6)（和/英） | / |
| キーワード(7)（和/英） | / |
| キーワード(8)（和/英） | / |
| 第1著者 氏名（和/英/ヨミ） | 飯ケ谷 洵 / Jun Iigaya / イイガヤ ジュン |
| 第1著者 所属（和/英） | 学習院大学 (略称： 学習院大) Gakushuin University (略称： Gakushuin Univ) |
| 第2著者 氏名（和/英/ヨミ） | 平野 咲空 / Sakura Hirano / ヒラノ サクラ |
| 第2著者 所属（和/英） | 学習院大学 (略称： 学習院大) Gakushuin University (略称： Gakushuin Univ) |
| 第3著者 氏名（和/英/ヨミ） | 林 嘉欣 / Jiaxin Lin / リン カキン |
| 第3著者 所属（和/英） | 学習院大学 (略称： 学習院大) Gakushuin University (略称： Gakushuin Univ) |
| 第4著者 氏名（和/英/ヨミ） | 白田 由香利 / Yukari Shirota / シロタ ユカリ |
| 第4著者 所属（和/英） | 学習院大学 (略称： 学習院大) Gakushuin University (略称： Gakushuin Univ) |
| 講演者 | 第1著者 |
| 発表日時 | 2026-06-20 10:10:00 |
| 発表時間 | 20分 |
| 申込先研究会 | DE |
| 資料番号 | DE2026-2 |
| 巻番号（vol） | vol.126 |
| 号番号（no） | no.81 |
| ページ範囲 | pp.7-12 |
| ページ数 | 6 |
| 発行日 | 2026-06-13 (DE) |
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